A. I. Tatarkin
REGIONAL TARGETING OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC POLICY: AN INSTITUTION FOR SPATIAL PLANNING OF TERRITORIES
Authors: A. I. Tatarkin — Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation)
This article aims at assessing the state of Russian economy amid lower energy prices and the “exchange of sanctions” and identifying the priorities for Russian economic policy as a universal institution capable to support the stability and systemic character of development. It proposes to use the optimization of inter-budgetary relations in Municipality—Region—Federal Center system in order to initiate the process of spatial development of Russian territories by involving the regional and municipal capabilities in the development processes. All Russian citizens are recommended to adopt a more rigorous and responsible attitude towards the Constitution as the Basic Law, which received support from people and defines strategic priorities for the long-term development of Russia. The article provides a rationale for the methodology of optimizing the inter-budgetary relations between the Federation, its subjects and municipalities through a science-based division of powers and responsibilities for the socio-economic outcomes at each level. It proposes to involve the experts and the public in the development of a national plan for socio-economic and social development, the main priorities of which should be the improvement in the quality and effectiveness of public administration and spatial development of Russian territories. The author makes the case for the mechanisms and institutions that can connect the regions and territories to the implementation of such national plan. The conclusions and recommendations proposed in this article can be used by the federal authorities when drafting and adopting the laws and other regulatory acts on the distribution of powers and optimization of the budgetary process. They can also be used by regional and municipal authorities when planning and designing the spatial development of their territories.
Keywords: economic policy, priorities of economic policy, Russian Constitution, methodological basis of economic policy, National Plan of Social Development of the Russian Federation, National Plan of Spatial Development of Russian Territories
V. D. Bogdanov, N. N. Ilysheva, E. V. Baldesku, U. Sh. Zakirov
A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO DEVELOPING THE MODEL OF CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFICIENCY ON THE BASIS OF COMPANY’S NON-FINANCIAL REPORTS
Authors: V. D. Bogdanov — Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation), N. N. Ilysheva — Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia Boris Yeltsin (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation), E. V. Baldesku — Surgut Research and Project institute (Surgut, Russian Federation), U. Sh. Zakirov — Tomas Bata University (Zlin, Czech Republic)
Having reviewed the most widely used international non-financial reporting standards, GRI was identified as the optimal standard for the Russian context. The environmental component of the GRI G4 guidelines and the contribution of each aspect to the overall sustainability picture were analysed. Over time, the value of biological resources increases, and therefore, a company’s economic development cannot continue in isolation. To determine the degree of harmony between economic development and ecological condition of the territories involved, new approaches and methods are required. Based on statistical methods, a model of correlation between economic development and environmental efficiency was developed that uses non-financial reporting data. The model can be used by oil and gas companies, and its general principles — by other industries. The results may interest stakeholders and serve as a platform for forecasting and making administrative decisions aimed at achieving harmony between economic development and environmental efficiency. The model was tested on the largest oil and gas Russian company “Surgutneftegaz” data. A positive correlation was shown between the two systems of its sustainable development: economy and ecology. The results obtained demonstrate the company’s strong commitment to conservation. Further research may yield more profound results, contributing to broader sustainable development.
Keywords: sustainable development, components of sustainability, non-financial reporting, social responsibility, correlation model, correlation coeficients, economic development, ecological footprint, forecasting, managing environmental impact
V. V. Lokosov, Ye. V. Ryumina, V. V. Ulyanov
REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF HUMAN POTENTIAL INDICATORS
Authors: V. V. Lokosov, Ye. V. Ryumina — Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population RAS (Moscow, Russian Federation), V. V. Ulyanov — National Research Institute Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russian Federation)
The purpose of the study presented in this article is an interregional analysis of human potential. The quality of the population proper is investigated at the regional level far less than the quality of the population life. The article provides an extended characteristic of human potential in seven directions: economic activity, demographic processes, physical health, the cultural potential of population, social health, educational potential, the attitude of population to the environment. On the basis of official statistics for 2008–2012, there were selected 63 indicators characterizing human potential in all these directions. In the final result, the correlation analysis has led to the substantiation of the system of indicators for the level of human potential development, consisting of 10 indicators. The system included 3 economic indicators and 7 social indicators characterizing human potential. Upon these indicators the Russian regions were divided in two types of regions by means of hierarchic agglomerative (combining) methods of cluster analysis: the regions with economic indicators and without them. The performed calculations provided the typology of regions by the human potential indicators being stable over time and covering 74.4 % of the Russian population. A substantial interpretation of breaking down regions by groups, identification of both strong and weak aspects of each cluster were made, finding out specific features of the regions falling under the clusters. The obtained results can be used when working out measures for reducing the interregional inequality in the levels of human potential development. To find out what measures can be effective, it is possible to examine the strategic directions of regions’ development in the cluster that is the most successful with respect to the human potential characteristics under investigation.
Keywords: human potential, quality of population, human resources, cluster analysis, regional level, typology of regions, economic indicators, social indicators, Federal subjects, interregional analysis
V. A. Kryukov, A. Ye. Sevastyanova, A.N. Tokarev, V. V. Shmat
A RATIONALE FOR SOME DIRECTIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RESOURCE TERRITORIES: THE COMPLEX «MESO-LEVEL» PROBLEM
Authors: V. A. Kryukov, A. Ye. Sevastyanova, A.N. Tokarev, V. V. Shmat — Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of RAS (Novosibirsk, Russian Federation)
The article presents an approach to the analysis and evaluation of integrated investment projects, which consist of infrastructure facilities and industrial clusters allocated to poorly developed areas rich in natural resources. This study shows the feasibility of a public-private partnership during the construction of infrastructure facilities in order to minimize the risks and maximize the benefits.
The conceptual framework of the resulting approach is associated with the ideas and principles of «impact investing» («creation of shared values») and inclusive economic development. These are increasingly used worldwide, especially to accelerate the socio-economic development of backward countries and territories. The article presents an international experience and explains the relevance of best practices in Russia.
The authors identified methodological problems associated with the application of traditional methods to the evaluation of economic effects of project investing under the conditions of high uncertainty. The authors explain why it is necessary to use models and methods (real options analysis and fuzzy cognitive models) that allow researchers to directly take into account the uncertainty and project risks. The novelty of the article is the methodological tools for evaluating the socio-economic efficiency of complex projects combining the development of infrastructure and minerals.
The proposed approach was used to provide a rationale for a road construction project in the Berezovsky district of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. The authors showed opportunities to generate a set of institutional, organizational, and financial conditions under which the implementation of the project will be attractive to both investors and government and will bring socio-economic benefits to this territory.
The proposed approach and tools can be used for a socio-economic strategic decision-making process to justify infrastructure projects in resource-rich regions.
Keywords: region, mineral resource complex, infrastructure, cluster, impact investing, inclusive economic development, public-private partnership, financial and economic evaluation, real options analysis, fuzzy cognitive model
P. Ya. Baklanov, A. V. Moshkov
STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONS OF THE ECONOMY IN THE PACIFIC REGION OF RUSSIA AND EFFICIENCY TRENDS
Authors: P. Ya. Baklanov, A. V. Moshkov — Pacific Institute of Geography, the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Vladivostok, Russian Federation)
Pacific Russia is viewed as an aqua-territorial macro-region that encompasses the Far Eastern Federal District and the adjacent water area within the 200-mile maritime economic zone. The macro-region has a wealth of natural resources at land and on sea, opportunities for the use of sea transport to link Russia and Europe with the countries of Asia-Pacific Region. Pacific Russia is divided into 2 latitudinal zones — the northern zone and southern zone, which include the territories of northern and southern constituents of the Russian Far Eastern Federal District. The combinations of activities by constituent entities and latitudinal zones are considered as the territorial structures of the economy. This article reveals the differences in socio-economic capacity and development level of these latitudinal zones. The authors have assessed the structural transformations in the economy of latitudinal zones in 2004–2013 by taking into account the changes of similar activities in the constituent entities and their ratios measured as a share of value added. This allowed to identify the transformations of territorial economic structures in the latitudinal zones. Over this period, the greatest changes of economic structures occurred in the northern zone. In the southern zone, the structural transformations of the economy were smaller, except for the Sakhalin region. In all latitudinal zones, there was a decrease in the share of manufacturing industries and the increase in the share of extractive industries. The article compares the generalized assessment of changes in the social and economic efficiency (by the growth of population income, labor productivity, and profits) with the structural changes in the economy of the constituent entities of Pacific Russia. The authors note that an important premise for building a sufficiently sustainable system of interregional division of labor in Pacific Russia is the location of extractive industries and initial stages of the manufacturing industry activities in the northern zone, while the major manufacturing industries and interregional transport and logistics services are located in the southern zone. This article is intended for experts and students interested in the development problems of Russia’s eastern regions.
Keywords: Pacific Russia, territorial structures of the economy, value added, latitudinal economic zones, main types of activities, latitudinal profiles, extractive industries, manufacturing industries, structural transformations of the economy
O. D. Vorobieva, A. V. Topilin, A. A. Grebenyuk, T. V. Lebedeva
ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION PROCESSES BASED ON CENSUS DATA
Authors: O. D. Vorobieva, A. V. Topilin — Moscow Psychological and Social University (Moscow, Russian Federation), A. A. Grebenyuk — Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russian Federation), T. V. Lebedeva — Moscow Psychological and Social University (Moscow, Russian Federation)
The subject matter of research is the internal migration processes of the Russian population in the period from the 1960s to 2010. The research is based on the data about the territorial population flows published in the all-Union census materials of 1970, 1979, and 1989, and in the all-Russia census materials of 2002 and 2010. The basic migration flows and directions are considered. Methodologically, the analysis of migration is based on the use of end-to-end indicators enabling to assess the dynamics of migration processes over a long period. Special attention is paid to rural-urban internal migrations, the volumes, patterns and consequences of which have not been so far properly investigated or assessed. The authors offer and calculate relative indicators that have never been used to assess the processes in question. To make the census materials of the soviet and post-soviet periods comparable, the economic zoning adopted before 2000 is used, and the administrative-territorial network is unified. The authors confirm the hypothesis that from decade to decade the intensity of territorial mobility of both urban and rural population was reduced. Interregional migration flows are considered, and various tendencies and migration intensity for over four decades are de ned. The authors analyze the dynamics in the structure of migrants by the time they lived in the place of their permanent residence in various regions. The research shows that the tendencies developed at that time and persisting continue to adversely affect the territorial re-distribution of population and the regional social and economic development of the country. The research results can be used in adjusting the regional socio-economic and migration policy.
Keywords: internal migration, migration in Russia, population census, interregional migration, economic regions of Russia, rural-urban migration, urbanization, natives and non-natives, long-time residents, new settlers, length of residence
M. V. Zharikov
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DIRECT TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND NEAR-BORDER SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Authors: M. V. Zharikov — Russian Customs Academy (Luybertsy, Russian Federation)
The subject matter of this article is the mutual international settlements between Russia (i.e. its border regions) and China in yuans. An advantage of such settlements is determined by the amount of money which can be spared by the Russian importers of Chinese products in case of direct trade. The topic of the article encompasses the analysis of export-import operations and national currencies’ use, in particular, the yuan, in the cross-border settlements between Russia and China. The objective of this article is to reveal the role of China in the international activities of the Russian near-border regions on the basis of the analysis of export and import statistics database. The hypothesis of this article is that the dynamics of Chinese imports to the Russian near-border regions correlates with the amount of the yuans traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The article produces forecasts of Chinese imports to the Russian near-border regions and the amount of money, which can be spared by the Russian importers in the case of a transition in bilateral settlements to the yuan. The outcomes of the article include the calculated indicators of the efficiency of the direct trade between China and Russia and of the coverage of Chinese imports in the Russian near-border regions by the yuan. The findings of the article are recommended to the Russian international companies as and reference point to increase the profitability of export-import operations with China, and to federal and local governments to create the Russian external economic strategy. The authors come to the conclusion that if the Chinese imports to the Russian border region were in the yuan, then the yuans volume of trade on the Russian foreign exchange market would allow the direct settlements with China.
Keywords: Russian near-border regions, international use of rouble and yuan, direct trade effeciency, BRICS countries
G. D. Boush, О. М. Kulikova, I. K. Shelkov
AGENT MODELLING OF CLUSTER FORMATION PROCESSES IN REGIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
Authors: G. D. Boush — Omsk Academy of the Humanities (Omsk, Russian Federation), О. М. Kulikova, I. K. Shelkov — Siberian State Automobile and Highway Academy (Omsk, Russian Federation)
The subject matter of this research is the processes of the spontaneous clustering in the regional economy. The purpose is the development and approbation of the modeling algorithm of these processes. The hypothesis: the processes of spontaneous clustering in the social and economic environment are supposed to proceed not linearly, but intermittently. The following methods are applied: agent imitating modeling with an application of FOREL and k-means algorithms. The modeling algorithm is realized in the Python 3 programming language. The course regularities of clustering processes in the region are revealed: 1) the clustering processes are intensifying, the production uniformity is increasing; 2) the increase of the level of production uniformity leads to the leveling of customer behavior; 3) the producers of high-differentiated production reduce the level of its differentiation or leave the cluster; 4) the stages of steady functioning are illustrative for clustering processes, their change is followed with arising of bifurcation points; 5) the activation of clustering processes in regional economy leads to the revenue increase of the cluster participants, each of producers and of consumers, and to the growth of synergetic effect values. These results testify the nonlinearity of processes of clustering and ambiguity of their effects. The following conclusions have been drawn: 1) a modeling of the processes of spontaneous clustering in regional economy has showed that they proceed not linearly, a steady progressive development is followed with leaps; 2) the clustering of regional economy leads to the growth of the efficiency indicators of activities of cluster-concerned entities; 3) initiation and activation of the clustering processes requires a certain environment.
Keywords: regional economy, regional clusters, spontaneous clustering, agent imitational modeling, model of spontaneous clustering in regional economy, agents-producers, agents-suppliers, agents-customers, modeling of the algorithm of spontaneous clustering in regional economy, regularities of spontaneous clustering
M. B. Guzairov, I. V. Degtyareva, E. A. Makarova
REGIONAL POPULATION EXPENDITURE FOR FOODSTUFFS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: COMPONENTIAL AND CLUSTER ANALYSES
Authors: M. B. Guzairov, I. V. Degtyareva, E. A. Makarova — Ufa State Aviation Technical University (Ufa, Russian Federation)
The article describes the solving of the problem of conducting the component and cluster analyses of population expenditure on food as one of the most important components of the standard of living. The purpose of the analysis is to develop the regional clusters of the Russian Federation, which vary in the structure of household expenditure for foodstuffs. The foodstuffs are presented in absolute units taking into integral account the standard of living index. The methods of intellectual analysis such as component and cluster analyses are applied as the research methods. The procedure for the data intellectual analysis based on the interconnected performance of component and cluster analyses is proposed. The procedure of the data intellectual analysis considers the interrelation between the results received by different methods, and also the possibility to return to the previous method for the purpose of repeating the analysis to specify consistently the clusters composition. Few clusters of the wealthy regions characterized by the high and average levels of expenditure for foodstuffs are revealed as well as the quite many clusters of not enough wealthy and not wealthy regions characterized by the low level of expenditure for foodstuffs. It is shown that the growth of standard of living characterized by the size of a gross regional product per capita is followed by the growth of the Gini coefficient, which indicates both the inequality of income distribution and reduction in expenditure for low-value foodstuffs. The results of the analysis can be applied to the development of the decision-making support system intended for the analysis of the scenarios of macroeconomic regulation in the eld of income policy for the purpose of increasing the standard of living of population. The analysis of the population expenditure for foodstuffs has allowed to reveal the cluster structure of the regions of the Russian Federation, to show it according to the generalized indications, to formulate the specific characteristics of the clusters of the regions and important management decisions.
Keywords: expenditure of households, component and cluster analyses, clusters of regions, scatterplot
G. A. Agarkov, A. E. Sudakova
THE RUSSIAN CONSUMER SECTOR: ESTIMATION TECHNOLOGY
Authors: G. A. Agarkov — The Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation), A. E. Sudakova — The Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation), Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation)
The article describes the methodology for estimating the Russia’s consumer sector and the effect of its application. The monitoring procedure of the Russian consumer sector groups indicators into two units: the unit of the estimation of consumer goods and the services market estimation unit. The estimation unit of consumer goods is composed of two modules: food products and non-food products. This module offers two components that provide an estimation of the consumer sector: marketing (estimates the accessibility of retail trade and services for end users) and production (estimates the domestic manufacture). The results of the estimation show general improvements in the consumer sector in the period of 2000–2014, but overall development is evaluated as low. The analysis revealed that the financing is growing faster than the quality indices of development. As an example, the financing of agriculture has increased by 1.5 times over 15 years (against comparable prices from 2000), while agricultural production has not changed. Another most pressing challenge is the weak differentiation of the Russian economy, as evidenced by the low rates of non-food production (availability of non-foods of own production remains at a low level and averages 20 %). The results of the estimation suggest the need to reform the regulation of the sector primarily concerning priorities for its development and improvement of financial and economic mechanisms to achieve them.
Keywords: Russian consumer sector, food security, production, nal consumption
I. V. Sharf, L. S. Grinkevich
ASSESSMENT OF HARD-TO-RECOVER OIL RESERVES PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN TOMSK REGION
Authors: I. V. Sharf — National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University (Tomsk, Russian Federation), L. S. Grinkevich — National Research Tomsk State University (Tomsk, Russian Federation)
The development of the licensed areas, profound geological exploration, enhanced oil recovery due to innovative technologies introduction and revitalization of oil production from unconventional horizons could significantly increase the oil production in the Tomsk region. This article deals with the issue of oil producing companies’ affairs of the Tomsk region for the past 10 years and proves the oil production potential growth through the development of both conventional and hard-to-recover unconventional oil reserves, concentrated in the Bazhenov and Tyumen Formations, as well as in the Lower Jurassic sediments. The Russian Federation is far behind from the economically developed countries, especially from the United States, in the exploitation of hard-to-recover unconventional hydrocarbon resources. The «shale revolution» was determined by a complex of financial and tax incentives introduced for oil and gas companies. However, this was mainly beneficial for medium and small sized companies. Therefore, both the business entities and regional authorities should increase the investments spending, as well as introduce the additional tax incentives considering the quality and type of potentially available raw hydrocarbons produced in the region, in contrast to the declared benefits in the territory of Eastern Siberia. The introduction of tax incentives justified by the authors, and the implementation of public-private partnership mechanism will ensure the profitability of marginal and hard-to-recover deposits development of the Tomsk region in the long run, which in its turn, should ensure the stability of the economic development of the reviewed subject of the Russian Federation.
Keywords: oil production, hard-to-recover reserves, tax incentive, Bazhenov Formation, Mineral Production Tax
N. A. Uruzbaeva
PROBLEMS AND WAYS OF BUSINESS CLIMATE IMPROVING IN THE REGIONS
Authors: N. A. Uruzbaeva — L. N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University (Astana, Kazakhstan)
The presence of the specific conditions and development factors of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the regions of the country supposes the differentiated state policy in order to maintain a favorable business climate in the eld. The article presents the results of the research whose purpose was to determine the main issues and directions of the improvement of the business climate in the region, allowing to intensify the activities of local authorities in support of SMEs and considering the peculiarities of the territories development. The subject matter of this research is conditions and factors generating the business climate of the region. As a hypothesis, a direct connection between the prevailing regional business climate and the development of the quantitative indicators of active SMEs in the eld was assumed. The study used the method of comparative analysis, sociological methods of focus groups, survey research, and statistical methods of ranking and grouping. The article theoretically substantiates the correctness of the usage of the «business climate» category as an object of study in the framework of such project as «Implementation of «Business Climate» as an Independent Rating», which makes possible the argumentation of the used methodology and concretization of the factors affecting the functioning of small and medium-sized businesses in the regions. This research confirmed a direct correlation between the established business climate in regions and quantitative indicators of the development of active small and medium-sized enterprises in the eld. Such factors as “ financial resources” and “government support” limited the development of business increasingly. In conclusion, a set of measures is provided to improve the business climate in the region both at national and regional levels of government. In addition, it was concluded that to generate a favorable business environment in the regions of Kazakhstan, it is necessary to make a smooth transition from a policy of “identification and punishment of conscientious entrepreneurs” to a policy of “prevention of violations and promotion of good business.” The results of the research can be used in the work of the local executive authorities in order to improve business climate in the regions of country.
Keywords: small and medium enterprises, entrepreneurship, enterprise environment, business environment, the business climate in the regions
T. D. Sinyavets, L. A. Rodina
ON INCREASING OF THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE GARMENT INDUSTRY IN SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT ON THE BASIS OF THE INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER ESTABLISHMENT
Authors: T. D. Sinyavets, L. A. Rodina — F. M. Dostoevsky Omsk State University (Omsk, Russian Federation)
The issue of the development prospects of the Russian economy and the economy of its individual branches in the regions is highly relevant in terms of the increasing crises and economic development challenges. The scope of the study is a garment industry of the Siberian Federal District, which includes 12 subjects, and only six of them develop the garment industry actively. There are the regions of Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai and the Republic of Khakassia. The subject matter of the research is the state and prospects of the garment industry of the Siberian Federal District. It also includes the assessment of the garment industry as one of the sub-sectors of the light industry in terms of its competitiveness in the domestic market. The purpose of the comprehensive study is to determine the conditions and factors affecting the development of the industry, as well as to identify its development reserves and competitiveness on the basis of industrial cluster’s generation. The hypothesis of this study is that in the Siberian Federal District, there are a need and reserves to create a cluster of the garment industry. The main methods of the study are the comparative analysis, the expert assessment of the sector in certain regions of the Siberian Federal District, as well as the assessment of possible formation of the industrial cluster in the region. The results of the study are the evaluation of the competitiveness and prospects of the garment industry in Russia and the Siberian Federal District (a low level of development and competitiveness); the evaluation of the development level of the garment industry in the Federal District, which have showed the demand for apparel products from the population and enterprises, as well as the conditions for the provision of clothing manufacture with natural fabrics and synthetic materials, labor resources and research and development achievements; also the justification of the existing potential for development of a sectoral cluster by means of pooling together the productions and economic communications of the Novosibirsk and Omsk regions at the initial stage. The obtained results should be used to strengthen works for the development of regional industrial cluster (with a creation of a working group at the regional governments, the garment industry development programs, and practical measures for its realization), as well as a creation of conditions for stimulation of investment activity of entrepreneurs. The research has confirmed the hypothesis, that in the Siberian Federal District, there are a need and reserves to create a cluster of the garment industry.
Keywords: light industry, Omsk region, Novosibirsk region, competitiveness of the light industry, capacity of the light industry, cluster, development prospects, risks
A. P. Vozhzhov, O. V. Lunyakov, N. A. Lunyakova
DEFINITION OF CONDITIONALLY PERMANENT PART OF CURRENT LIABILITIES OF A BANK
Authors: A. P. Vozhzhov, O. V. Lunyakov, N. A. Lunyakova — Sevastopol State University (Sevastopol, Russian Federation)
The article deals with the questions of the definition of the conditionally permanent part of current liabilities of a bank. The purpose of this article is to develop a scientific and methodological approach to determine the conditionally permanent part of the current liabilities of a bank under the conditions of the complexity of data acquisition and processing of the data on factors that influence on demand deposits. The main hypothesis is the assumption of the heterogeneity of the variance of the daily cumulative sum of demand deposits. The analysis of scientific and methodological approaches that allow determining a stable part of current liabilities proves the need for further improvement of scientific instruments. In particular, a coefficient analysis that is proposed by some of the scholars, mainly, considers the average values of turnover on accounts, which in turn, can vary considerably throughout the calendar year. The use of the probability distributions to determine the expected value of the constant sum of deposits is possible only in the case of «ideal» financial conditions, when the impact of factors on the aggregate sum of deposits is not taken into account. The developed statistical models leave out the possible heterogeneity of the dispersion of this balance. In the article, it is proposed to apply econometric methods, namely, the methods of time series analysis to test the hypothesis of the variance heterogeneity of the cumulative sum of demand deposits, using daily data. In particular, the formalization and evaluation of EGARCH-model parameters are conducted. The EGARCH-model allows to take into account the non-linear, asymmetric effects of fluctuations in the financial series. The determination of the conditionally permanent part of demand deposits is proposed on the basis of the revealed regularities. The results of the research prove the hypothesis of the non-stationary character of the variance in daily balance of demand deposits. It may result from the economic shocks influence. The proposed scientific and methodological approach may be applied in the bank liabilities management both at the micro level and at the regional level of banking network.
Keywords: transformation of current liabilities, demand deposits, conditionally permanent part of settling funds, forecasting, asymmetric effects, variation in the demand deposits volatility, statistical models