A. I. Tatarkin, V. L. Bersenyov
A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE MARKET: ECONOMIC REFORM IN RUSSIA (1992–1998) AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Authors: A. I. Tatarkin, V. L. Bersenyov — Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation)
By analyzing and systematizing the literature accumulated over the past twenty years on the history of reforms, we can put in order the existing views on the processes that took place during these transformations and de ne a new vector in understanding the socio-economic development of Russia in the last decade of the 20th century and the rst decades of the 21st century. The rst step in this direction is the analysis of publications that re ect the preparation, progress and results of the contemporary economic reforms in the 1990s. The historiographic review includes the monographs written both by the advocates of the shock therapy, and their opponents and critics, rst of all, Members of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The study of this literature allows to reveal the spectrum of opinions on whether the shock therapy was the preferred version of transformations, on assessing the results of reforms by the end of the 1990s and the opportunities for alternative ways to make the transition from a planned to a market economy. In particular, the advocates of the «shock therapy» refer to the threat of famine and civil war to justify decisions that led to decline in output, hyperin ation and other negative trends. Their critics point out that the lack of public support caused the market reforms to fail. By acknowledging the obvious, i. e. a signi cant deterioration of economic indicators, the advocates see their success in establishing the system of market institutions, and, on this basis, insist there was no alternative to implemented version of reforms. In turn, their opponents believe that the alternatives to the «shock therapy» existed, and their distinctive feature would have been the gradual cultivation and not the forced administrative introduction of market economy institutions.
Keywords: historiography, contemporary economic reform, shock therapy, price liberalization, privatization, economic recession
V. S. Bochko
ECONOMIC AUTONOMY OF REGIONS IN THE NEW REALITY
Authors: V. S. Bochko — Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation)
The article expands on the concept of new reality (new normal) for Russia, which includes the increased role of individuals and larger economic autonomy of territories in their interaction with the federal center. The rationale is based on the hypothesis that, in the new reality, the improved wellbeing of people and elimination of economic disparities between the territories can be ensured by expanding their economic autonomy, because it leads to the increase in their intellectual, industrial and technological capacity. In this study, the author used the basic provisions of the classical economic theory, the theory of behavioral economics, interdisciplinary approach, and the method of statistical groupings. The article presents the trends in the economic autonomy of the territories, which include a decrease in the number of donor regions and differentiation of territories in terms of their socio-economic indicators. It substantiates the assumption that the differentiation of territories puts constrains on their socio-economic development and may lead to the emergence of a «regional peripheral economy,» the attribute of which is the dependence of the periphery from the center, reduced local initiative, and slowdown of technological development. The article identi es the need to use the mindset of people, their psychological attitudes in the economic development, the «second invisible hand of the market» and «soft power» in order to move beyond the «regional peripheral economy.»
The conducted study demonstrates that the expansion of economic autonomy of the territories is not the increased self-isolation of regions and municipal entities, but consists in the need to retain a signi cant part of the income from the production of goods and services created by local people, so that it could be autonomously used by regional and municipal authorities and directed to improving the wellbeing of territory’s residents.The author proposes to prepare a regulatory and legal document in order to ensure and strengthen the economic autonomy of the territories, and makes speci c proposals on the principles of its content and structure.
Keywords: new reality (new normal), economic autonomy of regions, municipal entity, federal center, wellbeing of people, consolidated budget, socio-economic di erentiation of territories, «regional peripheral economy», psychological attitudes for economic development, «so power»
A. A. Kuklin, S. A. Okhotnikov, L. A. Korshunov
ARCHITECTONICS OF THE “ANTI-CRISIS” INFORMATION-ANALYTICAL SYSTEM
Authors: A. A. Kuklin, S. A. Okhotnikov — Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation), Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia Boris Yeltsin (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation), L. A. Korshunov — I.I. Polzunova Altai State Technical University (Barnaul, Russian Federation)
This article presents a schematic diagram of the «Anticrisis» information analysis system, which aims at a comprehensive assessment of the parameters of the economic security of the Subjects of the Russian Federation while taking into account diverse risks, threats and the forecasting thereof. The schema re ects the interaction of the individual software modules that it comprises. It describes the integration of the modules with a uni ed database management system: access to the database, automatic backup and restore of databases in real-time and transmission of data over an open channel using modern encryption algorithms. The basic units of the system consist in: a unit for diagnosing the state of economic security; a unit for the welfare of the individual and residential area; a unit for extremism; a correlation unit; a modelling unit for the forecasting of the security of Subjects of the Russian Federation. As part of the simulation unit, a primary generalised mathematical model, based on a system of nonlinear differential equations, designed to take account of the correction factors, as well as taking into account all types of interaction indicators, is provided. The main types optimisation problems of interaction metrics are compiled using generalised models. Forecasts from 2016 to 2020 are generated on the basis of constructed optimisation propositions.
Keywords: «Anticrisis» information analysis system, nonlinear prediction, individual welfare and inhabited areas, socio- economic crises, threat probability, diagnosis of socio-economic status of the Ural Federal District
B. L. Lavrovsky, E. A. Shiltsin
SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT OF RUSSIAN REGIONS: ESTIMATION AND FORECAST
Authors: B. L. Lavrovsky — Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering (Novosibirsk, Russian Federation), Novosibirsk State Technical University (Novosibirsk, Russian Federation), E. A. Shiltsin — Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering (Novosibirsk, Russian Federation), Novosibirsk State University (Novosibirsk, Russian Federation)
The relation between Russia’s macroeconomic growth and its regional components for the period of 1990–2013 is considered in the paper. The goal is to estimate this ratio depending on the phase (stage) of development. The hypothesis is that the increase in regional disparities within the post-Soviet period, picked up by standard measures and noted by many authors, is not connected with the systemic removal of regional indicators from each other. The Russian regional space is considered to have specific forms of convergence-divergence, required to be identified. The dynamics of regional space configuration in Russia is considered from a new point of view—as a distribution of mass (volume) of the gross regional product (GRP) over the growth rates. The estimation and forecast of the structural characteristics of GRP mass distribution are made on the basis of the “distribution dynamics” approach. Using this approach, the forecast of the GRP dynamics and structure until 2025 is made. The average annual growth rate is expected to be around 104,5 % by 2025, while differentiation of growth rates significantly increases. The phase of macroeconomic growth over the last 15 years is reflected on its regional components: GRP growth in Russia in general, both before and after the crisis of 2009, creates a denser distribution than in 2009. The general trend of the 2000s and subsequent years is characterized by a certain decline in the differentiation of GRP per capita relating to the main regional space of Russia (74 regions). The results of this research may be useful for regional regulation policy purposes. A significant part of the Russian regions in 2009–2013, in spite of the dominant trend, provides dynamics not worse than that of the number of countries with a developed market. It seems that there is an urgent need to create a special scientific and practical project to study this phenomenon.
Keywords: spatial configuration, convergence-divergence of regional space, regional differentiation, economic growth, distribution dynamics, coefficient of variation, gross regional product, the Russian regions, forecast of regional growth
V. A. Iontsev, S. V. Ryazantsev, S. V. Iontseva
EMIGRATION FROM RUSSIA: NEW TRENDS AND FORMS
Authors: V. A. Iontsev — Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russian Federation), S. V. Ryazantsev — Institute of Socio-Political Research of RAS (Moscow, Russian Federation), S. V. Iontseva — Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russian Federation)
The subject-matter of this article is migration from Russia. The study deals with current aspects and new forms of emigration. The goal of this paper is to identify new patterns determining the emigration from Russia. The article views the emigration in a broad sense, including, in addition to classic emigration (i.e. leaving the home country for permanent residence in another country), various categories of return migration (labor migration, shuttle traders, seasonal migration, episodic migration, economic tourism, business migration, education abroad, etc.). With the emergence of these new forms and categories, there is a need to clarify the migration concepts. This analysis is built on a broad historical perspective on emigration, which has been a typical phenomenon for Russia over the last three centuries. The article is based on such economic theories, as the human capital theory, new economic theory of migration, Todaro’s economic theory of migration and other. In this article, a variety of methods are used, including historical analogy, statistical and mathematical approaches, sociological and econometric models. The article analyzes the patterns of modern emigration from Russia. It also considers certain aspects in the legal regulation of migration processes, with a focus on emigrants, including potential emigrants. In conclusion, the article notes the need for the state control of emigration processes. This means not so much the improvement of statistical records for this group of migrants, but rather speci c government measures aimed at providing the state support to these categories of migrants in order to prevent the non-return migration. In other words, it is not aimed at banning the emigration (a measure, the adverse effects of which were noted as long ago as by Mikhail Lomonosov). The ndings of this research can be used in improving the migration policy implemented, in particular, by the Federal Migration Service of Russia.
Keywords: international migration, emigration, emigrants, brain drain, labor migration, human capital, legal regulation, migration policy, potential emigrant, intellectual migration
I. M. Potravny, A. L. Novoselov, I. B. Gengut
FORMALIZATION OF THE GENERAL MODEL OF THE GREEN ECONOMY AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL
Authors: I. M. Potravny, A. L. Novoselov, I. B. Gengut — Plekhanov Russian University of Economics (Moscow, Russian Federation)
The paper focuses on the study of the problems of the economic and mathematical modeling of the green economy at the regional level. The purpose of the research is the development of economic and mathematical tools for the economic and ecological systems’ modeling at the regional level on the basis of the principles of green economy. The hypothesis of the research is based on the thesis that in the conditions of the exhaustion of natural resources and depletion of natural capital, the technogenic fields, production and consumption waste could be considered as a resource basis for modernization. Such factors’ use leads to the elimination of accumulated environmental damage and substitution of natural resources. The paper describes the approaches to the system modeling problem-solving in order to develop the green economy both in the country and its regions. The urgency of the transition to a green economy is confirmed by the theoretical and practical research on the cyclical development of the socio-eco-economic systems. A number of formalized models and methods for solving the current environmental and economic issues including the economic valuation of accumulated environmental damage, eco-economic assessment of the efficiency of natural resource substitution with resource-substitute are proposed as well as the choice of an optimal set of resources-substitutes taking into account the financial and natural resource constraints. The authors research the typical model of green growth considering the exhaustion of natural resources, technogenic resources deposits involving in economic circulation through the implementation of investment projects on the elimination of accumulated environmental damage. The results could be used in the different regions of Russia for the justification and implementation of investment projects within the framework of the federal target program “Elimination of accumulated environmental damage” in 2015–2026 years.
Keywords: green economy, evaluation of accumulated environmental damage, natural food chain, substitution of mineral resources, non-linear programming, sustainable development, regional aspects, resource depletion, environmental damage accumulated, efficiency
D. G. Sandler, A. D. Sushchenko
ECONOMIC MOTIVATIONS FOR MASTER’S STUDENTS’ CHOICE OF EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND PROFESSIONAL TRAJECTORIES
Authors: D. G. Sandler, A. D. Sushchenko — Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation)
The article examines the motivations for Master’s students’ choice of individual trajectories. In the course of their studies, the students’ trajectories have educational, scienti c and professional aspects. These trajectories determine the system of interaction between students and other participants in the educational process within the university framework (academic staff and other students) and outside it (employers, Russian and foreign researchers). Individual trajectories of Master’s students can be studied from the theoretical point of view, by following the formation and development of these trajectories, and from the practical point of view, focusing on how investments in Master’s students can enhance professional competencies of specialists on the regional labour market. The authors have analyzed the master’s students’ individual trajectories on the basis of monitoring data obtained from the survey carried out in February and December 2014. The students were asked to describe their expectations, including economic ones, and experience of pursuing their Master’s degrees. The research results have shown that the biggest discrepancy between the expectations and the actual experience of Master’s students lay in the sphere of their research trajectories and their participation in internationalization processes. The analysis of students’ expectations is important since it allows us to improve Master’s programs, to provide the labour market with highly quali ed specialists, and to increase the ef ciency of state investments into the human capital.
Keywords: system of higher education, individual trajectories, educational trajectories, professional trajectories, research trajectories, motivation, expectations of Master’s education, students’ experience, competitiveness on the labour market, human capital
S. P. Kyurdzhiev, A. A. Mambetova, E. P. Peshkova
INTEGRAL EVALUATION OF THE FINANCIAL STATE OF THE REGIONAL ENTERPRISES
Authors: S. P. Kyurdzhiev — South-Russian Institute of Management—Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation), A. A. Mambetova — Rostov State University of Economics (Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation), E. P. Peshkova — South-Russian Institute of Management—Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation)
The subject matter of the article is the development of theoretical positions and methodical approaches to the integral evaluation of the financial state of the region’s metallurgical enterprises. The purpose is to show the possibility of dividing the integral evaluation into separate elements for using this tool to build individual models based on the forecasting of the various coordinates of the financial position of enterprise. The hypothesis of the study is based on the objective need to improve the integral evaluation of the financial position of enterprises. This involves the modernization of existing theoretical and methodological approaches to the increase of the quality of analysis by eliminating certain shortcomings of discriminant models in order to clarify the algorithm of constructing the integral index. The methodological bases of systemic approach and mathematical modelling in economics are applied: the methods of financial analysis, grouping, abstraction, comparison which give the possibility of determining the financial indicators needed to build the predictive models of financial state; the methods of correlation and regression analysis, which allow to improve the integral value and to build the mathematical forecasting models. With the purpose of improving the integral evaluation of the financial condition of enterprise, the geometric interpretation is used, which involves the dividing of the integral indicator on the individual elements. The special feature of the proposed methodological approach consists in the implementation rules for the certain procedures of the evaluation of financial position and generalization of the analysis results. The proposed approach can be used by financial analysts to elaborate the strategic plans of company development and structure optimization of financial resources. This research allows to define the quantitative influence of separate parameters on the general assessment of the financial position for the purpose of its forecasting, which is understood as the system of the evidence-based probabilistic assumptions of the basic and alternative structural changes of the enterprise’s assets and liabilities.
Keywords: modelling of financial position, integral evaluation of the financial position, financial performance, profitability, paying capacity, liquidity, financial stability, composition and structure of assets and capital, efficiency of enterprise management, forecasting
Yu. V. Zaytseva
ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY HOUSEHOLDS AS A TOOL FOR THE CALCULATING OF THE SOCIAL CONSUMPTION NORM
Authors: Yu. V. Zaytseva — Volgograd State University (Volgograd, Russian Federation)
Since July 2016, it is planned to introduce electricity tariffs with the social consumption norm in all regions of Russia. The methodology for calculation the electricity social consumption norm for different types of households was legally adopted by resolutions of the Government of the Russian Federation. According to these regulations, at least 70 % of the actual volume of electric power supply to the population should fall within the social norm. This article analyzes the validity of the methodology for calculating the social norm. The research is based on the data about the consumption of electricity by Russian households. The purpose of this study is to construct an econometric model of electricity consumption and calculate model- based social norms for different types of households. Explanatory variables in the model are the factors that describe the household size and accommodation conditions: the number of residents, the presence or absence of electric cooker, the type of settlement (urban or rural), the climate of the region where the household lives. The simulation results show that 70 % of electricity will be consumed within the social norms, if the size of the norm for households consisting of one person, will be from 110 to 210 kW·h, depending on the accommodation conditions. The author also evaluates the necessary social norm increments for the second, third and subsequent members of different household types. The developed model takes into account the regional characteristics of energy consumption and can be useful for calculating the social norm of electricity consumption in the regions of Russian Federation.
Keywords: social norm of electricity consumption, econometric model, electricity, electricity demand, cross-subsidies, electricity tariffs, power conservation, energy efficiency, energy consumption, household